IP Group — ‘Call option’ on Pfizer’s anti-obesity programme

We believe that IP Group’s shares currently offer a compelling asymmetric return profile stemming from its exposure to potential future income streams from the anti-obesity products of Metsera (acquired by Pfizer in November 2025 for up to $10bn). Reflecting IP Group’s listed holdings (primarily Oxford Nanopore), net cash and other net liabilities in line with end-2025 balance sheet values implies that the current share price (which is at a 54% discount to end-2025 NAV) attaches only c £250m fair value to IP Group’s private portfolio (a discount of close to 70% to end-2025 valuations). At least 73% of this value (not adjusted for time value of money) is covered by expected exits in 2026–27 as management reiterated its target of more than £250m in proceeds between FY25 and FY27, of which it received £68.1m in FY25. This leaves an implied value of no more than £68m (or 7.7p/share) for IP Group’s remaining unrealised private portfolio including the Metsera IP (ie c 12% of its end-2025 fair value).