Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 18 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

BHP Supply Risks Largely Priced In and Iron Ore Positions for a Gradual Rebound

CMRG Relief Sparked the Rally, But BHP Now Faces a Tougher Reality Ahead

Fortescue Ltd (FMG AU): FY26 Record Shipments, Iron Bridge Impairment, and a Higher FY27 Cost Base

Iron Ore: All Eyes On CMRG Negotiation, China Imports And Restocking Strong: Negative Long-Term

Iron Ore Price Below 100 USD/Ton: Subdued By High Port Inventories And Tepid China Data

Iron Ore: Hanging By A Thread At 100 USD/Ton, When Will Massive Restock At Ports Reverse?

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With ongoing <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/no-credible-exit-china-takes-on-bhp-to-reorder-a-276b-market-20260402-p5zl0f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">restrictions on BHP products by the CMRG,</a> China continues to stockpile iron ore, with port inventories exceeding 47 days (~165 million tons). </li>
<li>As a result, imports from China are up 10% YoY to 210 million tons for Jan-Feb, and are likely to remain strong with ramp-ups by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">(RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">(VALE US)</a>. </li>
<li>With steel production stabilizing and apparent demand at -5.6% YoY (coupled with restocking), it is likely that iron ore prices will hold up in the 100-110 USD/ton range till Q3.</li>
</ul>


With ongoing restrictions on BHP products by the CMRG, China continues to stockpile iron ore, with port inventories exceeding 47 days (~165 million tons). 
As a result, imports from China are up 10% YoY to 210 million tons for Jan-Feb, and are likely to remain strong with ramp-ups by (RIO AU) and (VALE US). 
With steel production stabilizing and apparent demand at -5.6% YoY (coupled with restocking), it is likely that iron ore prices will hold up in the 100-110 USD/ton range till Q3.


Iron Ore: China Steel Demand Stabilizes, Port Stocking Continues Unabated

Fortescue Metals

Iron Ore: China Steel Demand Stabilizes, Port Stocking Continues Unabated