Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

Fed raises rates but refuses to guide on next move

US Treasuries Outlook: Economic and Policy Risks Remain, While Market Functionality Faces Challenges

US Banking System Survives Treasury's First Borrowing Binge, but Liquidity Concerns for 2024 Linger

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

<ul>
<li>The sell-off in government bonds could have further to go. US Treasury 10-year yields could test 5%</li>
<li>This fall in the value of prized collateral threatens to undermine the entire financial system, hit Global Liquidity hard and damage equities</li>
<li>Threat is most visible in very depressed levels of US bond term premia. Watch the slated step-up in Treasury coupon issuance and likely decline in foreign buying of US debt </li>
</ul>


The sell-off in government bonds could have further to go. US Treasury 10-year yields could test 5%
This fall in the value of prized collateral threatens to undermine the entire financial system, hit Global Liquidity hard and damage equities
Threat is most visible in very depressed levels of US bond term premia. Watch the slated step-up in Treasury coupon issuance and likely decline in foreign buying of US debt 


It's A Duration Crisis, Not (Yet) A Credit Crisis… Bonds, Not Banks Look Dangerous