Murakami-san is now 16.59/17.75% (shares/voting rights) of Mandom, which means that the maximum possible tendered position (assuming Murakami doesn't) is near the minimum hurdle. It's close. Hmmm...
What is covered in the Full Insight:
Introduction to Mandom MBO
Murakami-san's Stake Increase
Tender Offer Dynamics
Potential Outcomes and Risks
Conclusion and Investment Insight
Boomeranged on Fri, 31 Oct 2025 14:11
The silence around Mandom is unsurprising. Now trading ~25% through terms, suggesting there is no likelihood the current deal gets up. 1 turn of March 2027 EBITDA is 13% on price. To get to ¥2640 means Mar27 Adj EV/EBITDA goes from 5.7x to 8.4x. This may be palatable, but it is not free. There is a non-negligible possibility that CVC walks (as it lowers IRR a fair bit) unless pref funding is found