'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 22nd July - OBIC, CyberAgent, Tokyo Steel & The Deep Freeze

Nidec (6594 JP): Anticipated Recovery Largely in the Price

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 20th July - Genki Genky, Alinco, Komatsu Wall, GMO-AD Partners

Disco (6146 JP): Preliminary Sales Report Encouraging, Back to the Office in Wuhan

Nidec (6594 JP): Astute Response to COVID-19

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 17th July -

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 16th July - The Other Zoom, ISI-D, Adastria

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/271/original/2020-07-22_07-23-37.png?1595370233" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147271"></figure><p><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/268/original/2020-07-22_06-41-57.png?1595367748" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147268"></p></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO 'DANCES</a>'</strong> - DISCO 'led' yesterday's results &amp; revision highlighting this part of the technology 'chain's' COVID immunity.  Rolling TTM revenues and operating profits have turned positive year-on-year for the first time in at least six quarters. Further, the initial half-year forecast (not shown above) implies this upward momentum has continued into the current quarter. Disco shares have, however, lagged its larger peers over the last twelve, six, three months and should now close some of the performance 'gap'. The SPE Peer Group is, however, the most Overbought in the market and valuations are 'full' which will temper the upside. We would not be short. For more detail, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s April Insight - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/disco-6146-jp-preliminary-sales-report-encouraging-back-to-the-office-in-wuhan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38350" rel="noopener">Disco (6146 JP): Preliminary Sales Report Encouraging, Back to the Office in Wuhan</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/269/original/File%202020-07-22%206%2056%2012.jpeg?1595368629" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147269"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 3 Positive / 3 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-0.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.6% Quarter YoY / -0.2% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.2ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>6 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.2</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
DISCO 'DANCES' - DISCO 'led' yesterday's results &amp; revision highlighting this part of the technology 'chain's' COVID immunity.  Rolling TTM revenues and operating profits have turned positive year-on-year for the first time in at least six quarters. Further, the initial half-year forecast (not shown above) implies this upward momentum has continued into the current quarter. Disco shares have, however, lagged its larger peers over the last twelve, six, three months and should now close some of the performance 'gap'. The SPE Peer Group is, however, the most Overbought in the market and valuations are 'full' which will temper the upside. We would not be short. For more detail, please see Scott Foster's April Insight - Disco (6146 JP): Preliminary Sales Report Encouraging, Back to the Office in Wuhan. 
Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS
8 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 3 Positive / 3 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -0.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.6% Quarter YoY / -0.2% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.2ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
 6 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.2


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st July - Disco Dances & The Nagamori Premium