'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 28th January - 6755, 4603, 2413, 4684

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 29th January - 6954▲ 7751► 6701▲ 4751▲ 6645▼6857▼

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/170/original/2020-01-28_05-14-43.png?1580156104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115170"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>TRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/171/original/2020-01-28_05-28-10.png?1580156919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet Office</div>TRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.<div class="content-highlight">Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet OfficeTRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom