'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE - 12th April • To Each Their Own

Yaskawa – First Peek at FA Earnings Cycle Suggests Recovery but One Which Won’t Justify Valuations

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 7th April - His Finest Hour

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 6th April - The Japanese Experiment

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 8th April - Getting to 80%▼& The GDP Contraction Lottery

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/413/original/File%202020-04-10%207%2001%2043.jpeg?1586469736" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127413"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • aatishb.com</div><p><strong>CATCHING UP</strong> - As Japan's COVID-19 curve catches up with the global trendline and Tokyo reported a record number of 181 new confirmed cases, the local and national authorities are sparring over the details of the implementation of the requests to cease business operations. There are also variations of policy at the sub-prefectural level as, for example, concerning child-care facilities as Tokyo's wards adopt differing strategies. Such confusion is leading many individuals and some companies to take stricter measures than have so far been requested. Aichi and Kyoto Prefectures, which were omitted from the state of emergency declaration, have decided to implement measures independently. The constitutional arrangements governing relations between the state and prefectures are not working well at present and the frequent and very public communication breakdowns do not inspire confidence. The 'good' news is that COVID-19-attributed deaths in Japan are still below one hundred and only 99 people are deemed to be in critical condition. </p><p><strong>YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN (FOR ABOUT A WEEK)</strong> - Meanwhile, the national government is adamant that no compensation will be offered to businesses that are required to close. Support will be provided instead at an individual level where there is evidence of a loss of income. It does, however, appear that the shutdown will not now be implemented until the end of next week, which would result in only eight lost working days. The bold assumption is that the 80% social distancing measures that are being requested will have resulted in a peaking of the daily case count by months end.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/414/original/2020-04-10_06-57-43.png?1586470869" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127414"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic</div><p><strong>SOCIAL DISTANCING v LOCKDOWNS -</strong> In an interesting preprint <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.20052373v1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paper</a> issued on 8th April -<em><strong> Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic</strong></em> - a time-series analysis examined the impact of both social distancing measures and lockdowns in various US states. The evidence suggests that <strong>both</strong> policies are effective in reducing cases. These conclusions support Japan's current policy of avoiding the economic and social side-effects of universal stay-at-home policies.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/417/original/2020-04-10_07-33-27.png?1586471635" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127417"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, as the pace of announcements picks up, we shall review the 32 results and 14 annual revisions or initial forecasts made yesterday. The positive/negative balance for results was 17:15, for revisions and forecasts the split was 7:7, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> being the primary 'casualty'.</p>

Source • aatishb.comCATCHING UP - As Japan's COVID-19 curve catches up with the global trendline and Tokyo reported a record number of 181 new confirmed cases, the local and national authorities are sparring over the details of the implementation of the requests to cease business operations. There are also variations of policy at the sub-prefectural level as, for example, concerning child-care facilities as Tokyo's wards adopt differing strategies. Such confusion is leading many individuals and some companies to take stricter measures than have so far been requested. Aichi and Kyoto Prefectures, which were omitted from the state of emergency declaration, have decided to implement measures independently. The constitutional arrangements governing relations between the state and prefectures are not working well at present and the frequent and very public communication breakdowns do not inspire confidence. The 'good' news is that COVID-19-attributed deaths in Japan are still below one hundred and only 99 people are deemed to be in critical condition. YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN (FOR ABOUT A WEEK) - Meanwhile, the national government is adamant that no compensation will be offered to businesses that are required to close. Support will be provided instead at an individual level where there is evidence of a loss of income. It does, however, appear that the shutdown will not now be implemented until the end of next week, which would result in only eight lost working days. The bold assumption is that the 80% social distancing measures that are being requested will have resulted in a peaking of the daily case count by months end.Source • Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemicSOCIAL DISTANCING v LOCKDOWNS - In an interesting preprint paper issued on 8th April - Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic - a time-series analysis examined the impact of both social distancing measures and lockdowns in various US states. The evidence suggests that both policies are effective in reducing cases. These conclusions support Japan's current policy of avoiding the economic and social side-effects of universal stay-at-home policies.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, as the pace of announcements picks up, we shall review the 32 results and 14 annual revisions or initial forecasts made yesterday. The positive/negative balance for results was 17:15, for revisions and forecasts the split was 7:7, with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) being the primary 'casualty'.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 9th April - Communication Breakdown