Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Over 20 years experience in equities and asset management in Asia and Japan. Qualified CFA with experience analyzing companies as a buy-side analyst. In-depth knowledge of company fundamental analysis, corporate governance and valuations.

Japan Steel Works (5631) | Artillery Giant Reloads for Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Defense expansion priced in: JSW remains a key beneficiary of Japan’s multi-year defense buildup, but recent political optimism has driven valuations ahead of fundamentals.</li>
<li>
 Structural growth secured: Medium-term defense sales set to more than double by FY2028, supported by artillery dominance, APC production, and new railgun development projects.</li>
<li>
 Valuation headwinds: Even under bullish growth and margin assumptions, DCF implies ¥8,000 fair value; current 20x EV/EBITDA multiple looks rich versus domestic peers.</li>
</ul>



 Defense expansion priced in: JSW remains a key beneficiary of Japan’s multi-year defense buildup, but recent political optimism has driven valuations ahead of fundamentals.

 Structural growth secured: Medium-term defense sales set to more than double by FY2028, supported by artillery dominance, APC production, and new railgun development projects.

 Valuation headwinds: Even under bullish growth and margin assumptions, DCF implies ¥8,000 fair value; current 20x EV/EBITDA multiple looks rich versus domestic peers.


Japan Steel Works

Japan Steel Works (5631) | Play Defense