China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

China Logistics Sector Update & Downgrade S.F. Holding (2352.CH) To SELL: Pricing Pressure in 1H

[JD Logistics(2618 HK) DG to SELL]: JD’s Low-Price Strategy Hurts JD Logistics

[S.F. Holding (2352 SZ) Earning Review]: Facing Threat from Pricing and Peers’ Service Upgrade

JD Logistics (2618 HK): Surged After 2Q22 Result, Still an Upside of 39%

JD Logistics (2618 HK): 3Q22 High Growth, Not Just Acquired But Organic, 29% Upside

Down from HK$40 to HK$15, Opportunity to Come After Hard Q2

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect JDL (including Deppon) to report C4Q22 net revenue in line with cons., and non-IFRS net margin beat cons. by 0.5ppt. </li>
<li>We expect JDL’s top line to reaccelerate starting in C2Q23, supported by recovery of JD GMV, growing standalone delivery services, and returning demand for integrated supply chain services.</li>
<li>Increasing scale and improving operating efficiency in warehousing and transportation will contribute to JDL’s margin expansion. We upgrade JDL to BUY rating and raise TP to HK$ 21. </li>
</ul>


We expect JDL (including Deppon) to report C4Q22 net revenue in line with cons., and non-IFRS net margin beat cons. by 0.5ppt. 
We expect JDL’s top line to reaccelerate starting in C2Q23, supported by recovery of JD GMV, growing standalone delivery services, and returning demand for integrated supply chain services.
Increasing scale and improving operating efficiency in warehousing and transportation will contribute to JDL’s margin expansion. We upgrade JDL to BUY rating and raise TP to HK$ 21. 


JD Logistics(2618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Supported by Retail Recovery