European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.</li>
<li>Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.</li>
<li>With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.</li>
</ul>


Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.
Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.
With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.


Assura PLC

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer