European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recommended all-cash €15.60 offer values InPost at €7.8bn, implying a 50% premium to the undisturbed price, backed by 48% irrevocable support, unanimous boards and fully committed certain-funds financing.</li>
<li>Transaction risk is low, primarily timing-driven: strong margin resilience, improving international ROIC and comfortable pro-forma debt service capacity reduce break risk, leaving regulatory duration and free-float tendering as key variables.</li>
<li>At €15.10, the 3.3% gross spread implies a ~90% market-implied success probability and mid-single-digit annualised returns on a Q4-2026 close, offering attractive risk-adjusted upside for event-driven investors.</li>
</ul>


Recommended all-cash €15.60 offer values InPost at €7.8bn, implying a 50% premium to the undisturbed price, backed by 48% irrevocable support, unanimous boards and fully committed certain-funds financing.
Transaction risk is low, primarily timing-driven: strong margin resilience, improving international ROIC and comfortable pro-forma debt service capacity reduce break risk, leaving regulatory duration and free-float tendering as key variables.
At €15.10, the 3.3% gross spread implies a ~90% market-implied success probability and mid-single-digit annualised returns on a Q4-2026 close, offering attractive risk-adjusted upside for event-driven investors.


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