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Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

Equity Bottom-Up

Portola Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

We expect the complete response letter (CRL) for Andexanet Alfa to be resolved in 2017 and the drug to be launched successfully in the U.S. market. A regulatory application is also pending in the E.U. Using risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled US$377 million of peak revenue in this indication (at 50% peak penetration, 80% probability of reaching the market, 15% cost of capital). Portola has recently filed a New Drug Application (NDA) with the U.S. FDA in October, 2016 for the approval of Betrixaban for extended venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in acute medically ill patients. More encouraging clinical data was presented at the annual scientific conference of the American Heart Association this week. On a retrospective analysis, treatment with Betrixaban for upto 6 weeks resulted in 48% reduction in the VTE risk (p=0.002). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled peak risk-adjusted revenue from this clinical indication= US$1.78 billion/year (at 20% peak market penetration in the U.S., probability=65% and cost of capital=15%). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/ DCF approach, our first price target for the common stock is US$31 (potential 63% upside potential). Sell-side consensus is $26.54 from 6 analysts.

We expect the complete response letter (CRL) for Andexanet Alfa to be resolved in 2017 and the drug to be launched successfully in the U.S. market. A regulatory application is also pending in the E.U. Using risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled US$377 million of peak revenue in this indication (at 50% peak penetration, 80% probability of reaching the market, 15% cost of capital). Portola has recently filed a New Drug Application (NDA) with the U.S. FDA in October, 2016 for the approval of Betrixaban for extended venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in acute medically ill patients. More encouraging clinical data was presented at the annual scientific conference of the American Heart Association this week. On a retrospective analysis, treatment with Betrixaban for upto 6 weeks resulted in 48% reduction in the VTE risk (p=0.002). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled peak risk-adjusted revenue from this clinical indication= US$1.78 billion/year (at 20% peak market penetration in the U.S., probability=65% and cost of capital=15%). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/ DCF approach, our first price target for the common stock is US$31 (potential 63% upside potential). Sell-side consensus is $26.54 from 6 analysts. 

Portola Pharmaceuticals

Long Position with Upcoming Catalysts