European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Lottomatica is down 9.2% following the CIRSA merger announcement, erasing ~€575m of equity value; we believe the sell-off overstates the transaction cost.</li>
<li>CIRSA is acquired at ~6x 2026E EBITDA before synergies, versus Lottomatica’s 8.0x unaffected NTM multiple, with €115m of annual pre-tax cash synergies.</li>
<li>At €22.49, Lottomatica trades at ~7.45x NTM EBITDA. We would buy the sell-off: the current de-rating gives too little credit to the acquired earnings and synergies.</li>
</ul>


Lottomatica is down 9.2% following the CIRSA merger announcement, erasing ~€575m of equity value; we believe the sell-off overstates the transaction cost.
CIRSA is acquired at ~6x 2026E EBITDA before synergies, versus Lottomatica’s 8.0x unaffected NTM multiple, with €115m of annual pre-tax cash synergies.
At €22.49, Lottomatica trades at ~7.45x NTM EBITDA. We would buy the sell-off: the current de-rating gives too little credit to the acquired earnings and synergies.


Lottomatica/CIRSA: An Excessive Acquirer Sell-Off