Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Worried About the SOX? The Rally Hides 1) Wide Performance Divergence 2) Wide Valuations Dispersion

Micron. Don't Sweat The Dip, Focus On The Five Year SCA!

Is Software Getting Cheap? De-Rating, but Not Cheap. Hyperscalers and Some Fintech More Interesting.

Hyperscalers: What Is Consensus Forecasting? Good or Bad? How Much Capex Can They Spend?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Memory prices gone ballistic since 4Q25. 1Q26 DRAM/NAND price increased ~80% QoQ. In 2Q ~60% QoQ. In Jan-26, Trend was forecasting total Memory value would increase by 130% in 2026. </li>
<li>AI-HBM growth will continue – low risk here. We know Nvidia, AMD, Google roadmap; we know HBM roadmap and specs, volumes and revenue indications from firms (Jensen $1 trillion revenue).</li>
<li>On the conventional side, sharp price hikes (DRAM has doubled over a year) lead to demand destruction. IDC and others are revising down PC, Smartphone, Consumer Elec forecasts. Big cuts. </li>
</ul>


Memory prices gone ballistic since 4Q25. 1Q26 DRAM/NAND price increased ~80% QoQ. In 2Q ~60% QoQ. In Jan-26, Trend was forecasting total Memory value would increase by 130% in 2026. 
AI-HBM growth will continue – low risk here. We know Nvidia, AMD, Google roadmap; we know HBM roadmap and specs, volumes and revenue indications from firms (Jensen $1 trillion revenue).
On the conventional side, sharp price hikes (DRAM has doubled over a year) lead to demand destruction. IDC and others are revising down PC, Smartphone, Consumer Elec forecasts. Big cuts. 
