Equity Analyst, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Research experience of over 20 years include working at leading Buy and Sell-side institutions, covering markets in ASEAN, India, and North Asia. Multi-sector coverage included - Consumer Staples/Discretionary, Media, Textiles, Oil, Gas, and Coal. 
Passionate about money, mindfulness and meditation.

Equity Analyst

Norwegian Fund’s Stand on Page Industries: Market Can No Longer Ignore Labour Rights Violations

Page Industries (PAG IN) | Disappointments to Continue; Volume Recovery Key

Page Industries (PAG IN) | Key Takeaways from Interaction with Regional Distributor

The Fragile Urban Consumer | Rajasthan Checks Indicate an Emerging Urban Consumption Problem

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Men's Underwear Index, supposedly first conceived by former US Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan in the late 1970s, suggests that decline in the sale of men's innerwear indicates a poor overall state of the economy. It has proven true in India. Now,  the latest CMIE reports indicate a revival in the informal sector as lockdowns are partially eased even as fears of prolonged slow down remains. However, in a worrisome trend for the consumer discretionary sector in India, more salaried jobs were lost in July even as overall unemployment narrowed down significantly. In this scenario of a weak outlook for the salaried class, expect discretionary consumer spending to contract as shoppers postpone consumption or down-trade (opting for lower-priced value-for-money products) where possible. Recovery in rural/informal segment could, however, support demand growth in the mass/value segment. Expect demand for premium products to wane as value picks up. <div class="content-highlight">What are we saying differently? The broader market focus has been on the green shoots in India's economy as suggested by higher rural spending and shrinking of the overall unemployment rate to near pre-COVID levels (See charts below). We highlight the deepening of job losses in the salaried sector, which form the core base for the country's consumer discretionary segment, especially on the premium end. We believe this divergent trend in recovery favors the mass/value players in the consumer product space while demand for branded/premium products will weaken in the near-to-medium term. </div>Though the above-discussed shift in trend will apply to the broader consumer products segment, in this insight we literally look at Men's Inner-wear segment in India. For Investors with exposure to the Inner-wear segment, we recommend a switch out of leading premium-priced branded player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, still trading at historically expensive valuations despite revenue/profit decline in recent quarters; better proxy would be value players with positive growth and margin outlook. In line with our argument that companies that offer products with superior value-for-money (discussed in detail below) are positioned to benefit in the near-to-medium term,  leading value players have already reported a strong recovery in sales and profits for the June quarter. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, the premium player, will announce its results this week on the 3rd of august - expect weaker revenue and profit growth. Time to switch.

Men's Underwear Index, supposedly first conceived by former US Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan in the late 1970s, suggests that decline in the sale of men's innerwear indicates a poor overall state of the economy. It has proven true in India. Now,  the latest CMIE reports indicate a revival in the informal sector as lockdowns are partially eased even as fears of prolonged slow down remains. However, in a worrisome trend for the consumer discretionary sector in India, more salaried jobs were lost in July even as overall unemployment narrowed down significantly. In this scenario of a weak outlook for the salaried class, expect discretionary consumer spending to contract as shoppers postpone consumption or down-trade (opting for lower-priced value-for-money products) where possible. Recovery in rural/informal segment could, however, support demand growth in the mass/value segment. Expect demand for premium products to wane as value picks up. What are we saying differently? The broader market focus has been on the green shoots in India's economy as suggested by higher rural spending and shrinking of the overall unemployment rate to near pre-COVID levels (See charts below). We highlight the deepening of job losses in the salaried sector, which form the core base for the country's consumer discretionary segment, especially on the premium end. We believe this divergent trend in recovery favors the mass/value players in the consumer product space while demand for branded/premium products will weaken in the near-to-medium term. Though the above-discussed shift in trend will apply to the broader consumer products segment, in this insight we literally look at Men's Inner-wear segment in India. For Investors with exposure to the Inner-wear segment, we recommend a switch out of leading premium-priced branded player Page Industries (PAG IN), still trading at historically expensive valuations despite revenue/profit decline in recent quarters; better proxy would be value players with positive growth and margin outlook. In line with our argument that companies that offer products with superior value-for-money (discussed in detail below) are positioned to benefit in the near-to-medium term,  leading value players have already reported a strong recovery in sales and profits for the June quarter. Page Industries (PAG IN), the premium player, will announce its results this week on the 3rd of august - expect weaker revenue and profit growth. Time to switch.

Men's Underwear Index Is Slipping; Switch from Premium to Value Plays