Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

MercadoLibre 2Q26: Growth Outruns the Credit Profile

MercadoLibre Prices US$1.0bn 5.850% 2036 Senior Unsecured Notes

MercadoLibre 4Q25: Strong Growth, Margin Pressure Persists

MercadoLibre 3Q25: Strong Growth but Profitability Under Pressure

MercadoLibre: A Credit Look into the Latin American Rising Star

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Key Outcome: Ecosystem growth remained exceptional, with revenues increasing 49.0% YoY, but profitability weakened as investment intensity weighed on margins.</li>
<li>
Risk/Volatility: Credit expansion, provisions, free shipping, fulfillment, 1P, CBT, and AI investments keep margin recovery gradual and adjusted FCF sensitive.</li>
<li>
Valuation Driver: Neutral remains appropriate as MELI’s 2031s and 2033s trade near EM BBB YTW, with 2033s the preferred exposure.</li>
</ul>



Key Outcome: Ecosystem growth remained exceptional, with revenues increasing 49.0% YoY, but profitability weakened as investment intensity weighed on margins.

Risk/Volatility: Credit expansion, provisions, free shipping, fulfillment, 1P, CBT, and AI investments keep margin recovery gradual and adjusted FCF sensitive.

Valuation Driver: Neutral remains appropriate as MELI’s 2031s and 2033s trade near EM BBB YTW, with 2033s the preferred exposure.


MercadoLibre 1Q26: Full Cart, Thinner Margins