Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results and Guidance beat, driven by HBM very fast growth. HBM also generates higher margins and sucks up DRAM capacity, a secondary benefit. </li>
<li>HBM is still in year-2 of a 5-year journey. Industry revenues double in 2025 and Micron HBM revenue increase 5x in FY25. Expect Micron HBM to double in FY26. </li>
<li>Consensus is a tad too low for FY26, likely 10% too low. Consensus is very low for FY27, likely 25-30% too low. It’s hard for the sell-side to forecast hyper-growth.</li>
</ul>


Results and Guidance beat, driven by HBM very fast growth. HBM also generates higher margins and sucks up DRAM capacity, a secondary benefit. 
HBM is still in year-2 of a 5-year journey. Industry revenues double in 2025 and Micron HBM revenue increase 5x in FY25. Expect Micron HBM to double in FY26. 
Consensus is a tad too low for FY26, likely 10% too low. Consensus is very low for FY27, likely 25-30% too low. It’s hard for the sell-side to forecast hyper-growth.


Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

Micron Technology

Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%