Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

[Memory Q2: Part 1] Stripping the Noise from SK Hynix and Samsung’s Q2 Prints

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

Micron @ KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

MICRON TECHNOLOGY (MU US) — Initiate with BUY (TP US$1,400)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's record FQ3-26 largely withstands forensic scrutiny. Minimal GAAP–non-GAAP adjustments, receivables aligned with revenue, and flat inventory despite tripled sales underpin a provisional 3.5/5.0 forensic score—the memory sector benchmark.</li>
<li>Three issues merit attention: government incentives contributed US$3.0bn (10.3%) of nine-month adjusted FCF; other liabilities rose US$7.8bn, adding US$7.3bn to operating cash; FQ3 interest expense was zero due to capitalisation.</li>
<li>We remain Bullish with unchanged FV of US$1,400. The critical FQ4 disclosure is SCA deposit accounting: where the US$18bn sits, and whether it enters operating cash, will determine FCF credibility.</li>
</ul>


Micron's record FQ3-26 largely withstands forensic scrutiny. Minimal GAAP–non-GAAP adjustments, receivables aligned with revenue, and flat inventory despite tripled sales underpin a provisional 3.5/5.0 forensic score—the memory sector benchmark.
Three issues merit attention: government incentives contributed US$3.0bn (10.3%) of nine-month adjusted FCF; other liabilities rose US$7.8bn, adding US$7.3bn to operating cash; FQ3 interest expense was zero due to capitalisation.
We remain Bullish with unchanged FV of US$1,400. The critical FQ4 disclosure is SCA deposit accounting: where the US$18bn sits, and whether it enters operating cash, will determine FCF credibility.


Micron Technology (MU US) - A Forensic Read on Its Accounts, Audited for Proof