Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Athaporn served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 22 years, of which 19 were in research and 9 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006.

Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also performs financial advisory services for TKC Services and provides 11 other on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely:

1) Snippets (news-driven);
2) Sathorn Series (financial services);
3) Silicon Stories (technology); 
4) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin series);
5) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative);
6) Thai Media Spotlight;
7) Political Pit Stop; 
8) Telecom Review; 
9) Thai Macro Watch (read-through from foreign events);  
10) Small Cap Diary; and
11) Property Grid

There are also 3 limited-time series driven by specific events or locations, namely:
1) Thai Corona Crisis;
2) South Series; and
3) Mechanics and Details (deal forensics).

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Gojek & Tokopedia, and Pragmatic Thailand

Snippets #40: Thai Airways Bailout, Tycoon Successions

A Second Look at the Thai Airlines Industry

BTS and Bangkok Airways, UTaPao Brother-In-Arms

BTS: Minor Impact from Possible Bangkok Shutdown

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Thailand Airlines / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the review, we look at the distressed Thai aviation industry from four key angles. While there is considerable upside to be had from a sectoral turnaround, survival of most local carriers, with the exception of Bangkok Airways, is really at risk, and neither the government nor private sector may be up to the task of rescuing them:<ul>
<li>
The existential crisis. With Bt330bn of debts in default, Thai Airways is the largest bankruptcy in Thai history, 5.5x the size of TPI's case in 1997. Former subsidiary Nok Air and archrival Air Asia are also restructuring. There's no guarantee any of them will survive the crisis.</li>
<li>
The rescue plans &amp; finances involved. Thai Airways will spend Bt3bn hiring Advisors (Baker &amp; Mckenzie, E&amp;Y, and Finansia). The industry will lay off close to 10,000 people (if not more) to cut costs and are now looking for Bt17bn in soft loans. Even in the best case, THAI probably will need 5 years to get back to profitability...if it survives.</li>
<li>
Reliance on domestic travel and non-core revenues. With international tourism basically dried up, airlines increasingly rely on domestic travel, but that hardly fills their collective fleet of 200 planes. With THAI and NOK at negative equity and AAV at 3.5x gearing, they make money wherever they can now in the short term, ignoring all impact on image.</li>
<li>
International travel recovery. In the long run, international tourism recovery is vital. If the three carriers disappear, it could be a windfall for Bangkok Airways and foreign airlines like Emirates. </li>
</ul>

In the review, we look at the distressed Thai aviation industry from four key angles. While there is considerable upside to be had from a sectoral turnaround, survival of most local carriers, with the exception of Bangkok Airways, is really at risk, and neither the government nor private sector may be up to the task of rescuing them:

The existential crisis. With Bt330bn of debts in default, Thai Airways is the largest bankruptcy in Thai history, 5.5x the size of TPI's case in 1997. Former subsidiary Nok Air and archrival Air Asia are also restructuring. There's no guarantee any of them will survive the crisis.

The rescue plans &amp; finances involved. Thai Airways will spend Bt3bn hiring Advisors (Baker &amp; Mckenzie, E&amp;Y, and Finansia). The industry will lay off close to 10,000 people (if not more) to cut costs and are now looking for Bt17bn in soft loans. Even in the best case, THAI probably will need 5 years to get back to profitability...if it survives.

Reliance on domestic travel and non-core revenues. With international tourism basically dried up, airlines increasingly rely on domestic travel, but that hardly fills their collective fleet of 200 planes. With THAI and NOK at negative equity and AAV at 3.5x gearing, they make money wherever they can now in the short term, ignoring all impact on image.

International travel recovery. In the long run, international tourism recovery is vital. If the three carriers disappear, it could be a windfall for Bangkok Airways and foreign airlines like Emirates. 


Mission Impossible 2021: Rescuing the Thai Airline Industry