Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

My approach is to cover companies that fit my investment criteria and trade at prices with near term free cashflow yields that provide above-average returns. Usually my hurdle yield is 10%. This way I do not need the market to converge to my assessment of value to earn acceptable returns. You can find my investment criteria on my website.

Since good companies rarely come cheap, I predominantly look off the beaten paths at smaller companies in sectors or regions that face short-term headwinds and are therefore neglected by most investors.
Most of the times, I use a Discounted Cashflow Model (DCF) to value businesses. However, to limit the possibilities to mess with the model, I developed a variation of the DCF that uses less parameters at the cost of being less precise. I think the tradeoff is very worthwhile as I really take the words of a Sir Maynard Keynes to heart: It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

Lastly, to protect me from my own ignorance and stupidity, I always insist on a margin of safety.

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Crops Corporation (9428) is a Nagoya-based conglomerate best known as KDDI’s largest au/UQ Mobile retail agency in the Chubu region, but the segment that actually drives profit is a restaurant-property sub-leasing arbitrage business (Innovation Holdings/Tempo Innovation), generating 43% of operating profit from just 26% of revenue.</li><li>KDDI itself holds a 20.32% equity-method stake with board representation, alongside staffing, building-maintenance, and overseas BPO units.</li><li>The company seems to steadily compound revenues and profits and once you strip out the asset write-off from a small Vietnamese subsidiary, it seems to trade very cheaply on just over 7x earnings.</li></ul>

Crops Corporation (9428) is a Nagoya-based conglomerate best known as KDDI’s largest au/UQ Mobile retail agency in the Chubu region, but the segment that actually drives profit is a restaurant-property sub-leasing arbitrage business (Innovation Holdings/Tempo Innovation), generating 43% of operating profit from just 26% of revenue.KDDI itself holds a 20.32% equity-method stake with board representation, alongside staffing, building-maintenance, and overseas BPO units.The company seems to steadily compound revenues and profits and once you strip out the asset write-off from a small Vietnamese subsidiary, it seems to trade very cheaply on just over 7x earnings.

Crops Corp

Monday Delight: 21/09/2026