Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

Bond Market Intervention Is a Last Resort for the BoJ

Behind the Curve Is A Real Risk for the BoJ

Japanese Big-Cap Banks – Rates Story Takes Centre Stage, Along with Banks’ JGB Exposure

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last, with Governor Ueda hinting that policy rates will continue to rise as long as the current economic outlook holds.</li>
<li>Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ, potentially keeping inflation elevated and increasing the risk of a faster tightening cycle.</li>
<li>October 2026 remains our baseline for the next hike. Risks are skewed toward an earlier move though, as soon as July 2026. </li>
</ul>


BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last, with Governor Ueda hinting that policy rates will continue to rise as long as the current economic outlook holds.
Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ, potentially keeping inflation elevated and increasing the risk of a faster tightening cycle.
October 2026 remains our baseline for the next hike. Risks are skewed toward an earlier move though, as soon as July 2026. 


More Hikes to Come in 2026-2027