Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Why Is Consensus So Wrong On The US Dollar?

'Quantitative Squeezing': Prospects for Global Liquidity in 2018

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>If market economists and the media are to be believed, the biggest threat to stock market performance is a sudden upsurge in ‘inflation’. We use scare marks around the word because they use the term in the narrow definitional sense of consumer price inflation or, as is the case in the US, core consumer prices. In our view, the real elephant in the room is the prospect that no-one even seems to consider as being a problematic event: the resumption of cyclically strong growth. If the US economy were to pick up to around 3-4% real growth in 2018 we would expect the S&amp;P500 to trade well below current levels by end of 2018 – and that is without any further interest rate increases.</p>

If market economists and the media are to be believed, the biggest threat to stock market performance is a sudden upsurge in ‘inflation’. We use scare marks around the word because they use the term in the narrow definitional sense of consumer price inflation or, as is the case in the US, core consumer prices. In our view, the real elephant in the room is the prospect that no-one even seems to consider as being a problematic event: the resumption of cyclically strong growth. If the US economy were to pick up to around 3-4% real growth in 2018 we would expect the S&amp;P500 to trade well below current levels by end of 2018 – and that is without any further interest rate increases.

Mr Trump's Black Elephant