Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MTG revised their original targets for FY2019 and issued revised targets which were significantly below the original targets</li>
<li>The share price has already been on the decline even prior to the notice of revised targets</li>
<li>Declining inbound sales of its flagship brand ReFa is the main culprit for guidance reversion</li>
<li>The impact of Chinese e-commerce legislation was significant due to limited exposure to pure inbound sales</li>
<li>Parallel buyers, those who buy products to resell them in China: dominates MTG’s inbound sales</li>
<li>MTG’s price difference in Japan duty-free purchases vs official sales channels in China</li>
<li>The Troubles of MTG, Causing Panic Among Consensus</li>
<li>Insider ownership and lack of free float keeping the share price above its fair value</li>
<li>Price to book approaching 1.0x; limits the immediate downside risk</li>
</ul>


MTG revised their original targets for FY2019 and issued revised targets which were significantly below the original targets
The share price has already been on the decline even prior to the notice of revised targets
Declining inbound sales of its flagship brand ReFa is the main culprit for guidance reversion
The impact of Chinese e-commerce legislation was significant due to limited exposure to pure inbound sales
Parallel buyers, those who buy products to resell them in China: dominates MTG’s inbound sales
MTG’s price difference in Japan duty-free purchases vs official sales channels in China
The Troubles of MTG, Causing Panic Among Consensus
Insider ownership and lack of free float keeping the share price above its fair value
Price to book approaching 1.0x; limits the immediate downside risk


MTG Co Ltd; Problems Stretch Far Beyond the New Chinese E-Commerce Legislation