Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Record margins sustained: Q2 FY26 EBITDA ₹1,932 cr; full-year margins near 49% on captive coal and lower caustic costs.</li>
<li>Growth visibility: 1 Mtpa 5th-stream alumina refinery to commission by Jun 2026; Pottangi mine start by FY27.</li>
<li>Valuation gap: Trades at ~4× EV/EBITDA vs 6–7× peers, with ₹7,900 cr cash and 4.5% yield supporting 25–30% re-rating potential.</li>
</ul>


Record margins sustained: Q2 FY26 EBITDA ₹1,932 cr; full-year margins near 49% on captive coal and lower caustic costs.
Growth visibility: 1 Mtpa 5th-stream alumina refinery to commission by Jun 2026; Pottangi mine start by FY27.
Valuation gap: Trades at ~4× EV/EBITDA vs 6–7× peers, with ₹7,900 cr cash and 4.5% yield supporting 25–30% re-rating potential.


NALCO — Margin Peak Sustained, Volume Upside from FY27

National Aluminium

NALCO — Margin Peak Sustained, Volume Upside from FY27