Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

In the absence of national leadership, individual states have been introducing a second wave of lockdowns to mitigate rising COVID-19 infections. Lockdown fatigue over the Christmas period could result in rising infection rates into 2021, thereby raising questions about the prospective state of the economy next year. 
The outlook for the economy will hinge on the political courage and enthusiasm of state and local governments to impose and enforce any new measures aimed at restricting social movements. Despite rising COVID-19 infections, the economy continues to expand during Q4.
Current S&amp;P500 revenue forecasts for 2021 do not appear to embrace either further meaningful state-by-state shutdowns or significant fiscal stimulus. The impact of another fiscal boost could be over-hyped, particularly if there is a repeat of households' thrifty behaviour during Q2.
US equity small-cap valuations are historically rich, but they are somewhat vulnerable to near-term economic dislocations due to the return of shutdowns early next year. These could destroy the current state of very bullish earnings expectations for 2021 H1.

In the absence of national leadership, individual states have been introducing a second wave of lockdowns to mitigate rising COVID-19 infections. Lockdown fatigue over the Christmas period could result in rising infection rates into 2021, thereby raising questions about the prospective state of the economy next year. 
The outlook for the economy will hinge on the political courage and enthusiasm of state and local governments to impose and enforce any new measures aimed at restricting social movements. Despite rising COVID-19 infections, the economy continues to expand during Q4.
Current S&amp;P500 revenue forecasts for 2021 do not appear to embrace either further meaningful state-by-state shutdowns or significant fiscal stimulus. The impact of another fiscal boost could be over-hyped, particularly if there is a repeat of households' thrifty behaviour during Q2.
US equity small-cap valuations are historically rich, but they are somewhat vulnerable to near-term economic dislocations due to the return of shutdowns early next year. These could destroy the current state of very bullish earnings expectations for 2021 H1.  

New US Shutdowns Raise Questions About the Economic Outlook and Small-Cap Equity Valuations