Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guidance cut (Business Profit ¥500 bn → ¥450 bn) as U.S. Steel delivers no profit contribution, overseas spreads weaken, and one-off losses weigh on earnings; domestic operations remain resilient.</li>
<li>Integration drag : $11 bn U.S. Steel modernization plan and rigid U.S. labor terms keep margins diluted and free cash flow negative; deleveraging and ROCE recovery deferred to FY27+.</li>
<li>Valuation rich, patience warranted: Trading at ~19× EV/EBITDA (vs peer median ~10×) with ROCE &lt; 8%; maintain Hold / Underweight until synergy visibility and free-cash-flow inflection emerge post-FY26.</li>
</ul>


Guidance cut (Business Profit ¥500 bn → ¥450 bn) as U.S. Steel delivers no profit contribution, overseas spreads weaken, and one-off losses weigh on earnings; domestic operations remain resilient.
Integration drag : $11 bn U.S. Steel modernization plan and rigid U.S. labor terms keep margins diluted and free cash flow negative; deleveraging and ROCE recovery deferred to FY27+.
Valuation rich, patience warranted: Trading at ~19× EV/EBITDA (vs peer median ~10×) with ROCE &lt; 8%; maintain Hold / Underweight until synergy visibility and free-cash-flow inflection emerge post-FY26.


Nippon Steel: Integration First, Payoff Later — FY2025 Reset Delays the Synergy Story