European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value

Forged in Politics: Nippon’s $55 Bid for X Heats Up Again

Steel Resolve: Nippon's Deal Gains Traction Amid Regulatory Reforging

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Valuation

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On September 26, Nippon Steel's president affirmed the company's commitment to completing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:202:1" rel="noopener">United States Steel (X US)</a> acquisition by year-end, despite the CFIUS review being extended until December.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel, with an expected value of $45.19/share offers 27% upside potential. This discount, driven by acquisition/fundamental value, supports a buy recommendation thus, I would be long U.S. Steel.</li>
<li>If the deal were to succeed, the likelihood of it closing before the end of 2024 is low, primarily due to the complexities surrounding the American presidential elections.</li>
</ul>


On September 26, Nippon Steel's president affirmed the company's commitment to completing the United States Steel (X US) acquisition by year-end, despite the CFIUS review being extended until December.
U.S. Steel, with an expected value of $45.19/share offers 27% upside potential. This discount, driven by acquisition/fundamental value, supports a buy recommendation thus, I would be long U.S. Steel.
If the deal were to succeed, the likelihood of it closing before the end of 2024 is low, primarily due to the complexities surrounding the American presidential elections.


Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value