Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

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Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nissan’s 3QFY21 results displayed a similar recovery trend to other automakers though like Honda, the margin trend looks more positive than top line trends. Reported revenue was 0.6% lower than consensus estimates, while operating profit was ¥67bn higher, mainly due to the sharp recovery of its Automobile business which grew 33.1% QoQ.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Actual Results - 3QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">2,225</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">27</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Consensus - 3QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">2,238</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">-39</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">-0.6%</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">NM</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">3.0% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Guidance - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">7,700</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">-205</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">-2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Consensus - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">7,750</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">-265</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">-3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Change</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">-0.7%</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">NM</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">0.8% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Implied Guidance- 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">2,383</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">-73</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">-3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Consensus - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">2,465</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">-46</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 35.12%;">Change</td>
<td style="width: 23.66%;">-3.4%</td>
<td style="width: 21.7%;">NM</td>
<td style="width: 19.52%;">-1.2% points</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>As a result of Nissan’s better performance, the company has revised its OP guidance for FY21 and now expects an operating loss of ¥205bn (an improvement of ¥135bn), while its full year revenue guidance was revised down -3.0% to ¥7,700bn.

Nissan’s 3QFY21 results displayed a similar recovery trend to other automakers though like Honda, the margin trend looks more positive than top line trends. Reported revenue was 0.6% lower than consensus estimates, while operating profit was ¥67bn higher, mainly due to the sharp recovery of its Automobile business which grew 33.1% QoQ.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Actual Results - 3QFY21
2,225
27
1.2%


Consensus - 3QFY21
2,238
-39
-1.8%


Surprise
-0.6%
NM
3.0% points


 
 
 
 


Guidance - FY21
7,700
-205
-2.7%


Consensus - FY21
7,750
-265
-3.4%


Change
-0.7%
NM
0.8% points


 
 
 
 


Implied Guidance- 4QFY21
2,383
-73
-3.1%


Consensus - 4QFY21
2,465
-46
-1.8%


Change
-3.4%
NM
-1.2% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQAs a result of Nissan’s better performance, the company has revised its OP guidance for FY21 and now expects an operating loss of ¥205bn (an improvement of ¥135bn), while its full year revenue guidance was revised down -3.0% to ¥7,700bn.

Nissan Motor

Nissan – Margin Recovery