Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

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LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, the operator of the Tokyo Disney Resorts extended the temporary closure of Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea till April 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19.</li>
<li>We discussed the impact of an extended shutdown in our previous insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oriental-land-tokyo-disney-resorts-closed-the-tender-buyback-could-be-preventing-a-further-decline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oriental Land: Tokyo Disney Resorts Closed, The Tender Buyback Could Be Preventing a Further Decline</a>
</li>
<li>Given the extent of Oriental Land’s dependence on the theme park business which has come to a standstill due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we expected Oriental Land’s share price to take a battering during these uncertain times.</li>
<li>However, during the first three months of 2020, the share price of Oriental Land has outperformed TOPIX and Nikkei by 14.5% and 15.9% respectively.</li>
<li>Travis Lundy, in his insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oriental-land-buyback-interrupted-and-an-overhang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oriental Land - Buyback Interrupted, and an Overhang?</a> said that the actual free float is far less than the 45% disclosed by the TSE and warned that there could be a potential for a short squeeze despite an overhang. It appears that he was spot on.</li>
<li>With some help from Travis, in this insight, we look at the reasons, magnitude and the timeline of this irrational movement in Oriental Land’s share price hoping to make gains when things start to unravel.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP), the operator of the Tokyo Disney Resorts extended the temporary closure of Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea till April 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
We discussed the impact of an extended shutdown in our previous insight: Oriental Land: Tokyo Disney Resorts Closed, The Tender Buyback Could Be Preventing a Further Decline

Given the extent of Oriental Land’s dependence on the theme park business which has come to a standstill due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we expected Oriental Land’s share price to take a battering during these uncertain times.
However, during the first three months of 2020, the share price of Oriental Land has outperformed TOPIX and Nikkei by 14.5% and 15.9% respectively.
Travis Lundy, in his insight Oriental Land - Buyback Interrupted, and an Overhang? said that the actual free float is far less than the 45% disclosed by the TSE and warned that there could be a potential for a short squeeze despite an overhang. It appears that he was spot on.
With some help from Travis, in this insight, we look at the reasons, magnitude and the timeline of this irrational movement in Oriental Land’s share price hoping to make gains when things start to unravel.


No Tourists and Park Closure Extended till April Due to COVID-19, Yet the Share Price Is Strong