Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

STMicro (STM): Can It Get Any Worse? Yes, It Will in 1Q25. Let's Wait for that Reset.

Vanguard (5347.TT): Setup 12" Fab in Singapore With 60% Stake, with NXP Investing Remaining 40%.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bold statement by Management: early stage of cyclical recovery, new upcycle beginning. 2Q result and 3Q guidance show a smaller pace of YoY decline, converging slowly to 0. </li>
<li>Other than an increasing order book, Management not forthcoming on details. In Automotive NXP has outperformed its peers during this latest downcycle with a smaller pace of decline.</li>
<li>Stock valuations at 20x 2025 EPS, 16.8x 2026 EPS, which are almost +1 standard deviation above average PEx. No room for error here.</li>
</ul>


Bold statement by Management: early stage of cyclical recovery, new upcycle beginning. 2Q result and 3Q guidance show a smaller pace of YoY decline, converging slowly to 0. 
Other than an increasing order book, Management not forthcoming on details. In Automotive NXP has outperformed its peers during this latest downcycle with a smaller pace of decline.
Stock valuations at 20x 2025 EPS, 16.8x 2026 EPS, which are almost +1 standard deviation above average PEx. No room for error here.


Nxp Semiconductors Nv

NXP 2Q25: Slowly Getting Out of the Hole