Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP): The S$800M Swing Factor, Capital Return Optionality in FY26

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OCBC built credit costs 6bp above its trailing run-rate in 1Q26. We read it as front-loading inside guidance. One 2Q26 data point confirms or changes that view.</li>
<li>OCBC discloses less about its overlay than DBS: neither the quarterly amount nor the cumulative stock is separately quantified. A reserve with no disclosed size has no auditable direction.</li>
<li>At S$28.69 OCBC trades at a 45% premium to GGM-justified book on a 13% ROE. DBS's 43% premium runs on 17%. Same multiple. 400bp less ROE.</li>
</ul>


OCBC built credit costs 6bp above its trailing run-rate in 1Q26. We read it as front-loading inside guidance. One 2Q26 data point confirms or changes that view.
OCBC discloses less about its overlay than DBS: neither the quarterly amount nor the cumulative stock is separately quantified. A reserve with no disclosed size has no auditable direction.
At S$28.69 OCBC trades at a 45% premium to GGM-justified book on a 13% ROE. DBS's 43% premium runs on 17%. Same multiple. 400bp less ROE.


OCBC SP: Accounting Forensics Affirms High Quality Earnings, but Overlay Transparency Is Below DBS

OCBC Bank

OCBC SP: Accounting Forensics Affirms High Quality Earnings, but Overlay Transparency Is Below DBS