Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Alastair was Senior Political Analyst at Nomura International plc between October 2008 and July 2015,
having first joined Lehman Brothers International in that capacity in August 2005. As such, he was responsible for identifying, tracking, analysing and illuminating to investors political events worldwide likely to impact on financial markets. In addition to his signature periodical Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night on political and geopolitical risk, he was the co-author of major studies on China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, Iran/Israel and on geopolitical risks related to the shift of the global economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, as well as numerous shorter papers.

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.</li>
<li>There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.</li>
<li>My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.</li>
</ul>


Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.
There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.
My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.


Oil in 2026