Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Alastair was Senior Political Analyst at Nomura International plc between October 2008 and July 2015,
having first joined Lehman Brothers International in that capacity in August 2005. As such, he was responsible for identifying, tracking, analysing and illuminating to investors political events worldwide likely to impact on financial markets. In addition to his signature periodical Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night on political and geopolitical risk, he was the co-author of major studies on China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, Iran/Israel and on geopolitical risks related to the shift of the global economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, as well as numerous shorter papers.

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Oil supply is projected to outpace demand growth through 2026, leading to rising inventories and sustained downward pressure on Brent crude to below USD60pb.</li><li>Opec+ output increases, quota disputes (especially with the UAE), and the potential unwinding of voluntary cuts could further flood the market.</li><li>US shale producers and international oil companies are reducing investment due to lower prices, but current Brent levels are not yet low enough to force significant cuts.</li></ul><p></p>

Oil supply is projected to outpace demand growth through 2026, leading to rising inventories and sustained downward pressure on Brent crude to below USD60pb.Opec+ output increases, quota disputes (especially with the UAE), and the potential unwinding of voluntary cuts could further flood the market.US shale producers and international oil companies are reducing investment due to lower prices, but current Brent levels are not yet low enough to force significant cuts.

Oil: Revisiting My Forecast