Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Founder

Market Thinker

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>While most long term thematic investing is aimed at long term growth stories, there are shorter term, but still meaningful, themes that are more cyclical in nature and reflect the sharp rise in profitability from operational leverage.</li><li>Indeed, we have often said that the biggest reason that economic forecasts and stock market profits diverge is that the economic forecasts tends to ignore operational leverage – they assume that a 5% rise in nominal GDP equates to a 5% rise in sales and thus a 5% rise in profits.</li><li>Except that’s not always what happens. Bottom up investors, as opposed to top down macro traders, known that sales can rise by market share gains, by a shift in pricing power independent of GDP or by new products and services.</li></ul>

While most long term thematic investing is aimed at long term growth stories, there are shorter term, but still meaningful, themes that are more cyclical in nature and reflect the sharp rise in profitability from operational leverage.Indeed, we have often said that the biggest reason that economic forecasts and stock market profits diverge is that the economic forecasts tends to ignore operational leverage – they assume that a 5% rise in nominal GDP equates to a 5% rise in sales and thus a 5% rise in profits.Except that’s not always what happens. Bottom up investors, as opposed to top down macro traders, known that sales can rise by market share gains, by a shift in pricing power independent of GDP or by new products and services.

Operational Leverage, not financial leverage