Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

Oriental Land: The 33.5x FY27 Consensus OP Bubble

Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs Is No Longer on Management’s Interest

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During the initial months of 2QFY24, both Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea experienced a significant double-digit QoQ drop in Google search interest.</li>
<li>Using Google Search trends data for the first two months of 2QFY24, we anticipate a QoQ decline of about 17% in Oriental Land's Theme Parks revenue, dropping below ¥100bn.</li>
<li>2QFY24 consensus OP is 2.5x above the company's guidance, and both short and medium term consensus revenue and OP targets for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> appear blatantly unachievable.</li>
</ul>


During the initial months of 2QFY24, both Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea experienced a significant double-digit QoQ drop in Google search interest.
Using Google Search trends data for the first two months of 2QFY24, we anticipate a QoQ decline of about 17% in Oriental Land's Theme Parks revenue, dropping below ¥100bn.
2QFY24 consensus OP is 2.5x above the company's guidance, and both short and medium term consensus revenue and OP targets for Oriental Land (4661 JP) appear blatantly unachievable.


Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023