Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 15 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Oriental Watch - Expect a Positive Profit Alert for H1

Oriental Watch: Living in Isolation with My Patek and Rolex Is Just Fine

Oriental Watch: Increasing Visibility on H2 2022

Oriental Watch: Great 0.39 HKD Final Dividend; With China Closed off from World Expect More of Same

Oriental Watch: Buying a Rolex in Milan or New York? No, Thanks We Will Get It in Shanghai & Beijing

Oriental Watch: Deep Value and a Good H1 2021

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> has made a very compelling case to stay on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-watch-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19950:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Watch (398 HK)</a>.  I will attempt to make a case for why dividends could be larger in H1 FY22 than H1 FY21, which we believe could further catalyze the stock. Our rationale for the same is:
<ul>
<li>Recovery of Hong Kong. </li>
<li>Continuous strength in China.</li>
<li>The massive decline in costs HoH as we expect employee and staff bonuses to come down.</li>
</ul>
Risks and Concerns
<ul class="">
<li>The outbreak in Nanjing could temporarily disrupt sales in China.</li>
<li>The potential upcycle owing to the inability of people in China to travel will reverse at some stage resulting in the normalization of earnings.</li>
</ul>
With the stock trading at 7x PE FY22, around 50% of the market capitalization in cash, and an estimated dividend of greater than 40 cents HKD around the corner in H1 FY22 ( after the declaration of a final dividend of 39 cents HKD in H2 FY21 ) we believe there is good upside in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-watch-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19950:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Watch (398 HK)</a>.

In his insight, Nicolas Van Broekhoven has made a very compelling case to stay on in Oriental Watch (398 HK).  I will attempt to make a case for why dividends could be larger in H1 FY22 than H1 FY21, which we believe could further catalyze the stock. Our rationale for the same is:

Recovery of Hong Kong. 
Continuous strength in China.
The massive decline in costs HoH as we expect employee and staff bonuses to come down.

Risks and Concerns

The outbreak in Nanjing could temporarily disrupt sales in China.
The potential upcycle owing to the inability of people in China to travel will reverse at some stage resulting in the normalization of earnings.

With the stock trading at 7x PE FY22, around 50% of the market capitalization in cash, and an estimated dividend of greater than 40 cents HKD around the corner in H1 FY22 ( after the declaration of a final dividend of 39 cents HKD in H2 FY21 ) we believe there is good upside in Oriental Watch (398 HK).

Oriental Watch: Sit Tight and Stay On For Larger Dividends