European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Ørsted: New Shares 10 Oct | Single-Line Supply/Digestion

Ørsted: State-Backed DKK 60bn Rights Issue | IPO-Scale, Heavy Dilution

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.</li>
<li>Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.</li>
<li>Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained &gt;+1% premium for borrow tightening.</li>
</ul>


Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.
Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.
Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained &gt;+1% premium for borrow tightening.


Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush

Orsted AS

Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush