European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rights done; allocations set; new shares list 10 Oct under DK0060094928; temp ISIN DK0064307755 subscription-only; ISIN merge 13 Oct 17:59 CEST.</li>
<li>Tape orderly into listing; shares 106.5→119 since ex-rights; rights basis tightened to ±~2% versus parity; expect single-line supply/digestion as subscribed stock meets the tape.</li>
<li>Trade stance: fade the listing flush; buy 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118 (stretch 121–124); hard stop &lt;101; confirm ≥DKK 1.0–1.5bn day-one value.</li>
</ul>


Rights done; allocations set; new shares list 10 Oct under DK0060094928; temp ISIN DK0064307755 subscription-only; ISIN merge 13 Oct 17:59 CEST.
Tape orderly into listing; shares 106.5→119 since ex-rights; rights basis tightened to ±~2% versus parity; expect single-line supply/digestion as subscribed stock meets the tape.
Trade stance: fade the listing flush; buy 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118 (stretch 121–124); hard stop &lt;101; confirm ≥DKK 1.0–1.5bn day-one value.


Ørsted: New Shares 10 Oct | Single-Line Supply/Digestion

<ul>
<li>Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.</li>
<li>Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.</li>
<li>Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained &gt;+1% premium for borrow tightening.</li>
</ul>


Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.
Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.
Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained &gt;+1% premium for borrow tightening.


Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush

<ul>
<li>Ørsted launches a large, DKK 60bn, fully underwritten rights issue, backed by the Danish State, to repair funding after U.S. disruptions and restore balance-sheet flexibility. Dilution is ~68%.</li>
<li>Scale is akin to an IPO placing by market volume, with substantial dilution for non-participants. Fully underwritten and state-backed, likely strong institutional take-up; expect volatility into allocation and listing.</li>
<li>Post-Announcement, shares reset lower yet still trade well above theoretical value, leaving mispricing pockets. Expect active flow, volatility through subscription, and potential listing-day pressure.</li>
</ul>


Ørsted launches a large, DKK 60bn, fully underwritten rights issue, backed by the Danish State, to repair funding after U.S. disruptions and restore balance-sheet flexibility. Dilution is ~68%.
Scale is akin to an IPO placing by market volume, with substantial dilution for non-participants. Fully underwritten and state-backed, likely strong institutional take-up; expect volatility into allocation and listing.
Post-Announcement, shares reset lower yet still trade well above theoretical value, leaving mispricing pockets. Expect active flow, volatility through subscription, and potential listing-day pressure.


Ørsted: State-Backed DKK 60bn Rights Issue | IPO-Scale, Heavy Dilution

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Major corporations and states will continue driving green energy demand, with renewable energy commitments independent of federal policy.</li>
<li>International green energy firms in Europe and Asia will attract U.S. investment and technologies as supportive policies and consistent demand make these markets appealing.</li>
<li>Despite an <em>"independent fed"</em> lower interest rates are more likely under Trump, which might more than compensate policy changes as investment costs rather than operational costs drive renewables </li>
</ul>


Major corporations and states will continue driving green energy demand, with renewable energy commitments independent of federal policy.
International green energy firms in Europe and Asia will attract U.S. investment and technologies as supportive policies and consistent demand make these markets appealing.
Despite an "independent fed" lower interest rates are more likely under Trump, which might more than compensate policy changes as investment costs rather than operational costs drive renewables 


How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

Denmark

Orsted A/S provides utility services. The Company engages in the development, construction, and operation of offshore wind farms, as well as generates power and heat from power stations. Orsted serves customers worldwide.

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Orsted AS (ORSTED DC)

Ørsted: New Shares 10 Oct | Single-Line Supply/Digestion

State-backed, IPO-scale rights complete. New shares list 10 Oct; expect a brief supply pulse then digestion. Event-driven: fade the listing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush

State-backed, IPO-scale Ørsted rights. Expect a listing supply pulse, then digestion. Event-driven: buy post-listing weakness with tight risk;...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ørsted: State-Backed DKK 60bn Rights Issue | IPO-Scale, Heavy Dilution

Statee-backed Ørsted rights issue: IPO-scale placing with material dilution (c. 67%), creating a clean rights–share arbitrage.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

States and corporations drive U.S. green energy demand. Interest rates, and innovations rather than Trump admin policies will shape renewables...

Pyari Menon

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

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