Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Indonesia Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">In this month’s analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we review the current dynamics behind the global economy and highlight a number of key positive developments that have greatly eased our concerns over the near term trajectory of the global economy. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">The near term trajectory of the GCSI (and therefore global economy) is dependent on two factors: </li></ul><ol class="ol1"><li class="li1">Whether or not the turmoil surrounding the Brexit is able to derail the ongoing ‘global process of runaway exuberance’ </li><li class="li1">A further stabilization in China’s economy</li></ol><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">Preliminary European Union Consumer Confidence data for July (reflecting the impact of the Brexit) provides an indication that the Brexit has not derailed the ‘global process of runaway exuberance’.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As indicated by our China Drag/Pull Indicator China’s economy is stabilizing, acting as less and less of a drag on the global economy. (In June the indicator increased to a level of -.44). As China’s economy continues to stabilize, the global process of runaway exuberance can be expected to continue.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As the global process of runaway exuberance continues the GCSI can be expected to reach very elevated levels near 1 by late 2016/early 2017 (indicating the global economy is in the process of overheating). </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">Despite the growing risks associated with an overheating global economy, global equity markets are expected to continue higher as we approach the late stages of runaway exuberance. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As this dynamic continues to play out we recommend investors maintain overweight positions in Emerging Markets most exposed to a set of ‘key risk factors’ including Russia, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Peru and Turkey. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As it has become increasingly apparent that the turmoil surrounding the Brexit has not derailed the global process of runaway exuberance we recommend restoring exposure to risk. </li></ul>

In this month’s analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we review the current dynamics behind the global economy and highlight a number of key positive developments that have greatly eased our concerns over the near term trajectory of the global economy. The near term trajectory of the GCSI (and therefore global economy) is dependent on two factors: Whether or not the turmoil surrounding the Brexit is able to derail the ongoing ‘global process of runaway exuberance’ A further stabilization in China’s economyPreliminary European Union Consumer Confidence data for July (reflecting the impact of the Brexit) provides an indication that the Brexit has not derailed the ‘global process of runaway exuberance’.As indicated by our China Drag/Pull Indicator China’s economy is stabilizing, acting as less and less of a drag on the global economy. (In June the indicator increased to a level of -.44). As China’s economy continues to stabilize, the global process of runaway exuberance can be expected to continue.As the global process of runaway exuberance continues the GCSI can be expected to reach very elevated levels near 1 by late 2016/early 2017 (indicating the global economy is in the process of overheating). Despite the growing risks associated with an overheating global economy, global equity markets are expected to continue higher as we approach the late stages of runaway exuberance. As this dynamic continues to play out we recommend investors maintain overweight positions in Emerging Markets most exposed to a set of ‘key risk factors’ including Russia, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Peru and Turkey. As it has become increasingly apparent that the turmoil surrounding the Brexit has not derailed the global process of runaway exuberance we recommend restoring exposure to risk. 

Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd. (2105 TT)

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN)

Meinian Onehealth Healthcare H (002044 CH)

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

Songcheng Performance Development (300144 CH)

Belle International Holdings (2129452D HK)

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development (000895 CH)

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498 CH)

Outlook For Global Economy and Markets Through Late 2016