Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Supportive Backdrop for US Equities, but the Events of 2000 Pose a Warning Against Complacency

Powell Suggests FOMC Not in a Hurry to Get Rates to Neutral

US Treasury Market Questions Fed's Prospective Policy Path

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Not all economic indicators will simultaneously flash recession warning signals due to changing labour market dynamics, but Fed officials are wary about the rising unemployment rate.</li>
<li>Since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, the vacancy rate has exceeded unemployment, resulting in a steeper Beveridge Curve that could enhance the Fed’s chances of producing a soft landing.</li>
<li>Fed policy can support equity valuations only if money is diverted from money market funds into bond funds, an outcome that will lower expected returns on bonds relative to equities.</li>
</ul>


Not all economic indicators will simultaneously flash recession warning signals due to changing labour market dynamics, but Fed officials are wary about the rising unemployment rate.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, the vacancy rate has exceeded unemployment, resulting in a steeper Beveridge Curve that could enhance the Fed’s chances of producing a soft landing.
Fed policy can support equity valuations only if money is diverted from money market funds into bond funds, an outcome that will lower expected returns on bonds relative to equities.


Pace of Fed Policy Easing Dependent on Future Labour Market Weakness Impacting Growth