External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>IMF team is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Sep 25, 2025, for second semi annual review of the prevailing EFF facility of US$7bn. This review will assess Pakistan performance in Mar and Jun 2025 quarters and based on our working; Pakistan is likely to meet all 7 Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) including Net International Reserve and SWAP’s position. While the primary balance numbers are already out for FY25 and well within the IMF targets.</li><li>Besides IMF advised reforms, Pakistan is also aggressively working to attract investment in untapped areas like offshore drilling, mining, and web 3.0. The testament to that was previously organized Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 2025 in Apr 2025 which attracted participants from over 50 countries including 5000+ delegates, as per news. Furthermore, renewed US interest in hydrocarbon potential (offshore) of Pakistan also shapes the way forward for development of Pakistan’s rich untapped natural resources. The flagship mining project of country “Reko Diq” is also expected to achieve its financial close in coming weeks.</li><li>In the midst of these economic reforms and IMF program, Pakistan is witnessing heavy rains besides a serious floods like situation across its rivers, impacting nearly whole of the country barring few areas like Baluchistan and Azad Kashmir. Though central bank believes intensity of current floods is lower than previous ones. As a result of floods and heavy rains, we believe, economics reforms would be affected temporarily. However, resilient footing of economy will help overcoming it sooner. On fiscal side, we believe, due to expected spike in relief spending and likely lower tax revenues, the fiscal deficit of FY26 might go higher to 4.8% of GDP (vs. earlier 4.1% of GDP).</li></ul>

IMF team is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Sep 25, 2025, for second semi annual review of the prevailing EFF facility of US$7bn. This review will assess Pakistan performance in Mar and Jun 2025 quarters and based on our working; Pakistan is likely to meet all 7 Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) including Net International Reserve and SWAP’s position. While the primary balance numbers are already out for FY25 and well within the IMF targets.Besides IMF advised reforms, Pakistan is also aggressively working to attract investment in untapped areas like offshore drilling, mining, and web 3.0. The testament to that was previously organized Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 2025 in Apr 2025 which attracted participants from over 50 countries including 5000+ delegates, as per news. Furthermore, renewed US interest in hydrocarbon potential (offshore) of Pakistan also shapes the way forward for development of Pakistan’s rich untapped natural resources. The flagship mining project of country “Reko Diq” is also expected to achieve its financial close in coming weeks.In the midst of these economic reforms and IMF program, Pakistan is witnessing heavy rains besides a serious floods like situation across its rivers, impacting nearly whole of the country barring few areas like Baluchistan and Azad Kashmir. Though central bank believes intensity of current floods is lower than previous ones. As a result of floods and heavy rains, we believe, economics reforms would be affected temporarily. However, resilient footing of economy will help overcoming it sooner. On fiscal side, we believe, due to expected spike in relief spending and likely lower tax revenues, the fiscal deficit of FY26 might go higher to 4.8% of GDP (vs. earlier 4.1% of GDP).

Pakistan Economy - Implication Of Floods On Key Economic Indicators; IMF Review To Revisit Economic Projections