TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out the Week of August 20, 2021

Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

Palantir 4Q20 Earnings: The Greatest Operating Leverage Story Ever Told

Palantir 1Q21 Earnings: ARK’s Buying What They’re Selling

Palantir – Stock Based Compensation Costs Still High as Lockups Expire

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Palantir was up 11% on earnings. What is going on here?! Is no one paying attention?? 59% (!!) of the total contract value that Palantir signed this quarter came from companies that it has invested $250MM in…in the second quarter! Growth is forecast to decelerate from 49% to 33% QoQ...and it trades at 28x forward sales. And its CEO sold $391MM this past quarter. Biggest short in software.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

Palantir was up 11% on earnings. What is going on here?! Is no one paying attention?? 59% (!!) of the total contract value that Palantir signed this quarter came from companies that it has invested $250MM in…in the second quarter! Growth is forecast to decelerate from 49% to 33% QoQ...and it trades at 28x forward sales. And its CEO sold $391MM this past quarter. Biggest short in software.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Palantir 2Q21 Earnings: Do You Buy The Growth?