Pan African Resources — Evolving out of Africa

Financially, Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY25 results were characterised by record second half output, record EPS and a record (proposed) dividend. Operationally, they were characterised by a full half-year contribution from MTR/Mogale and maiden production from Tennant’s Nobles in Australia, both ahead of time and below budget. If the contract liability relating to PAF’s MTR/Mogale construction financing facility (effectively a synthetic forward sale) is adjusted out of revenue and into ‘other expenses’ and excluded owing to its exceptional nature, then normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) were 7.0% ahead of our forecast, at 8.73c/share (see Exhibit 2), while the company’s dividend was increased by more than 50% to 2.10c/share. With the price of gold remaining high, we have upgraded our FY26 normalised HEPS forecast by 11.3%, to 13.21c/share. Note that, if it remains high for the full year, then our forecast (below) increases by a further 51.2%, to 19.98c/share. Simultaneously, PAF is seeking promotion for its listing from AIM to London’s Main Market.