Pan American Silver - Consistent growth at higher costs

Pan American Silver (PAAS) provided an update on its FY23 operational performance and FY24 guidance. While total silver production came in below guidance at 20.4Moz and gold output of 883koz was within guidance, the main highlight of the results was the record Q4 gold sales of 270koz (FY23 894koz). FY24 production expectations for gold and silver are broadly in line with FY23 guidance ranges, while costs are seen growing further. Despite our expectations of near-term cost normalisation, industry cost pressures remain visible. We have therefore pared down our valuation of PAAS from US$23.5/share to US$22.0 on more conservative cost forecasts and reduced production projections, which is partly offset by our slightly more favourable commodity price assumptions.