European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

Permanent Tsb Group Holdings P / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BAWAG’s €2.97 cash offer remains the only firm bid. Axis’s indicative €3.20 proposal offers 6.0% upside from €3.02 but lacks committed financing.</li>
<li>The 27 October High Court hearing could disrupt the scheme. BAWAG retains alternative implementation options, supported by the Irish government’s 57.5% stake.</li>
<li>Our €2.98 probability-weighted target offers no upside at current levels. Standalone value of €2.53 implies 16.2% downside if the acquisition fails.</li>
</ul>


BAWAG’s €2.97 cash offer remains the only firm bid. Axis’s indicative €3.20 proposal offers 6.0% upside from €3.02 but lacks committed financing.
The 27 October High Court hearing could disrupt the scheme. BAWAG retains alternative implementation options, supported by the Irish government’s 57.5% stake.
Our €2.98 probability-weighted target offers no upside at current levels. Standalone value of €2.53 implies 16.2% downside if the acquisition fails.


Permanent TSB: €3.20 Is Not Yet an Offer