European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Persistent Systems/Nagarro: A 140% Premium, but Not an Expensive Deal

Nagarro SE: Potential Takeover Amidst Financial Growth

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Persistent’s €81 cash offer is now live, leaving a 3.7% gross spread. Binding shareholder arrangements and additional tender indications materially reduce acceptance risk.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals remain the principal timetable variable rather than an obvious source of break risk. Persistent targets completion by end-Q1 2027, with financing fully committed.</li>
<li>We raise completion probability from 80% to 92% and estimate €79.72 probability-weighted value. Interloper optionality has diminished given the contractual protections around Persistent’s offer.</li>
</ul>


Persistent’s €81 cash offer is now live, leaving a 3.7% gross spread. Binding shareholder arrangements and additional tender indications materially reduce acceptance risk.
Regulatory approvals remain the principal timetable variable rather than an obvious source of break risk. Persistent targets completion by end-Q1 2027, with financing fully committed.
We raise completion probability from 80% to 92% and estimate €79.72 probability-weighted value. Interloper optionality has diminished given the contractual protections around Persistent’s offer.


Persistent Systems / Nagarro: Offer Live, 3.7% Spread with Acceptance Risk Reduced