Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Regional Economics: Asia’s Manufacturing Ended 2023 on a Weak Note

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK and Euro area flash PMIs increased by more than expected, making summer’s weakness increasingly look like the trough in activity growth.</li>
<li>2023’s path follows 2022 and the inverse of 2020 because we still see the pandemic corrupting seasonals. The five months ahead will be bullish if this pattern continues.</li>
<li>Labour markets still look tight, albeit with some evidence of loosening. Monetary policy needs to stay tight until excess demand and inflation normalise.</li>
</ul>


The UK and Euro area flash PMIs increased by more than expected, making summer’s weakness increasingly look like the trough in activity growth.
2023’s path follows 2022 and the inverse of 2020 because we still see the pandemic corrupting seasonals. The five months ahead will be bullish if this pattern continues.
Labour markets still look tight, albeit with some evidence of loosening. Monetary policy needs to stay tight until excess demand and inflation normalise.


PMIs Passed Seasonal Trough