HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 - Remember to Escape Before Collapsing

Pop Mart (9992 HK) - 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an "outsider".Explanations such as "lipstick effect" are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.</li>
<li>To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.</li>
<li>Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.</li>
</ul>


In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an "outsider".Explanations such as "lipstick effect" are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.
To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.
Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.


Pop Mart (9992 HK) - Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast