European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Poste/TIM: The €0.30 Sweetener Arrives, but the Spread Doesn't

Poste–TIM: A Done Deal in Pricing, Not Yet in Votes

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Poste/TIM Update: More Certain, Not More Attractive

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TIM trades 1.0% above Poste's offer while only 3.1% of shares subject to the offer have been tendered, giving shareholders little economic incentive to tender at current prices.</li>
<li>A modest cash sweetener is affordable and recent Italian precedents support the possibility. We raise our probability of improved consideration from 20% to 25%.</li>
<li>Our €7.77 probability-weighted value remains below TIM's €7.804 share price, with 2.5% sweetener upside versus 12.9% break downside. We would not initiate a position.</li>
</ul>


TIM trades 1.0% above Poste's offer while only 3.1% of shares subject to the offer have been tendered, giving shareholders little economic incentive to tender at current prices.
A modest cash sweetener is affordable and recent Italian precedents support the possibility. We raise our probability of improved consideration from 20% to 25%.
Our €7.77 probability-weighted value remains below TIM's €7.804 share price, with 2.5% sweetener upside versus 12.9% break downside. We would not initiate a position.


Poste/TIM: Why Tender When the Market Pays More?

Telecom Italia SPA

Poste/TIM: Why Tender When the Market Pays More?