HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Pre-IPO Lingyi ITech Guangdong (PHIP Updates) - The Business Model and the Outlook

Pre-IPO Alebund Pharmaceuticals (Jiangsu) Limited - The Pipeline and the Outlook

Pre-IPO Shanghai Seer Intelligent Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Pre-IPO New Hope Dairy (A/H Listing) - The Company Has Occupied a Favorable Position

Equity Capital Markets

Alebund Pharmaceuticals Jiangsu / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although directly in-licensing mature products/pipelines can significantly shorten the time/cost of the early-stage R&amp;D and clinical trials, such "assembled" pipeline combination has still raised doubts about Alebund’s independent R&amp;D capabilities.</li>
<li>Assuming the approval success rates for AP301 in the US/China are 45%/65% respectively, with peak sales of US$5-8 billion, a discount rate of 12-15%, valuation contribution would be RMB25-40 billion.</li>
<li>AP306 and AP303 are estimated to contribute RMB10-25 billion. Mircera is expected to contribute a valuation of RMB5-10 billion. So, we think comfortable valuation of Alebund would be RMB4-7.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Although directly in-licensing mature products/pipelines can significantly shorten the time/cost of the early-stage R&amp;D and clinical trials, such "assembled" pipeline combination has still raised doubts about Alebund’s independent R&amp;D capabilities.
Assuming the approval success rates for AP301 in the US/China are 45%/65% respectively, with peak sales of US$5-8 billion, a discount rate of 12-15%, valuation contribution would be RMB25-40 billion.
AP306 and AP303 are estimated to contribute RMB10-25 billion. Mircera is expected to contribute a valuation of RMB5-10 billion. So, we think comfortable valuation of Alebund would be RMB4-7.5 billion.


Pre-IPO Alebund Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention